Bullish setup on Allergan

Symbol:                 AGN
Last Traded:         $160.32
20 Day MA:          $161.43
First Targets         $169.00
Measured Target:$170.00-$190.00
Outlook:  We are looking to discover if the bottom is in on Allergan.

Big Picture Short on Tesla

We are expressing the Chanos “Tesla Big Short” with a lottery style put debit spread. By being so far out of the money, it will rely on this story badly breaking this year. The purpose of this is to put on a very small risk outlay that can pay off in a big way if this story unravels this year. The $3.50 debit could turn into a $50.00 payoff under the most bearish of situations. When sizing your trade, recognize the entire $3.50 premium will be a loss if this does not happen this year. We are buying to open the TSLA January 2019 $150.00 put and selling the January 2019 $100 put for net debit of $3.50.

Bullish Setup on Costco

Symbol:                 COST
Last Traded:         $187.35
20 Day MA:          $187.50
First Targets         $194.00
Measured Target:$197.00-$205.00
Outlook:  We are looking to discover if Costco is going to breakout of its consolidation pattern.

Bullish Setup on Raytheon

Symbol:                 RTN
Last Traded:         $213.05
20 Day MA:          $211.69
First Targets         $220.00
Measured Target:$224.00-$240.00
Outlook:  The defense contractors have held up in a flag style consolidation. We are looking to see if this bullishly breaks out.

John Mauldin: No sign of imminent recession

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Erik Townsend welcomes John Mauldin to MacroVoices. Erik starts by asking John if this is the end or just the beginning of this small market dislocation? They further discuss drivers behind the back up of interest rates and ask how far can the 10-year go before something breaks and what are the risks? They proceed to discuss inflation, China and some of the surprises from the SIC conference this year.

Adjusting Trade on the 20+y Treasury (TLT)

We were early to the Treasury bond (TLT) trade and see this as an opportunity to the trade. We are going to close this existing June $126.00/$120.00 spread for $4.50 or a $2.20 loss.  We are replacing the trade – we are opening a new credit spread position by selling to open the June 2018 $120.00 put for a $2.70 credit and buying to open the June 2018 $115.00 put for a $0.90 debit.  This is a net $1.80 net credit or $180.00 per contract.

Bullish Setup on Freeport-McMoran

Symbol:                 FCX
Last Traded:         $18.48
20 Day MA:          $18.52
First Targets         $20.00
Measured Target:$20.50-$23.00
Outlook:  This is a pure play on copper breaking out. Watch the copper charts for confirmation of a bull breakout.

Bullish Setup on Treasury Bonds

Symbol:                 TLT
Last Traded:         $119.19
20 Day MA:          $118.75
First Targets         $121.00
Measured Target:$121.50-$124.00
Outlook:  We are looking to discover if Treasury bonds begin retracing the drop from the past 3 months.

Jim Grant: The great Bond BEAR Market has already begun!

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcomes Jim Grant to MacroVoices. Erik and Jim discuss new Fed governor Powell, treasury yields and how far the FED go before something breaks.  They discuss his outlook on inflation, gold, junk bonds, China and the drivers of long term debt cycles.  They reflect on History and what happened when the FED did not bail out the banks in 1920 and considerations on what actions the US government can take to deal with the debt.

Bullish Setup on Valero

Symbol:                 VLO
Last Traded:         $91.72
20 Day MA:          $91.92
First Targets         $96.00
Measured Target:$98.00-$108.00
Outlook:  We are looking to discover if the oil refiners are positioned to breakout. We picked VLO, but HFC/ANDV/PSX are all good alternatives.

Bullish setup on Agnico Eagle

Symbol:                 AEM
Last Traded:         $39.17
20 Day MA:          $41.18
First Targets         $42.00
Measured Target:$43.00-$49.00
Outlook:  This is an early setup as we want confirmation of a gold breakout. It is prudent to let the chart develop.

Adjusting the Hedges on the Greek ETF

We are adjusting the protective hedges on our Greek ETF trade (GREK). We are selling to close both the March 16th $10.00 put ($0.15 or a $0.30 loss) and the March 16th $11.00 put ($0.90 or a $0.50 gain). We will let the March $12.00 call profitably expire for a $0.20 profit. We are replacing the existing hedges with a June 15th $10.00 protective put at a cost of $0.75.

SPY Debit Spread Targets

Managing the exit – Very similar to the last leg of the selloff, we anticipate that any strong selling will be fast and may be quick to reverse.  We wanted to set out some profit taking strategies for our members.

Fibonacci zone – $263.00-$266.00
Key bottom retest zone – $253.00-$258.00
Measured move – $245.00-$253.00

We continue to favor targeting the Key Bottom Retest zone, but we need to be aware of the possibility that the Fibonacci zone support contains the selling.  A solution for our members is to consider legging out of the trade, taking some profits off the table into the Fibonacci zone and giving the remainder of the trade room to profit further.

Jeffrey Snider: Gold has been punctuated by Eurodollar anomalies

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Erik Townsend and Patrick Ceresna welcome Jeffrey Snider to MacroVoices. Erik and Jeffrey discuss gold swaps, how central banks engage in them and what has changed in gold swap markets today. They further investigate the gold bug’s conspiracy theory about “gold pukes” and what happened to gold in the 2008 crisis. They finally touch on how has the mood changed in gold starting 2017?

Watch Macro Analytics March 1

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0:12 Japanese, Chinese Data
0:16 Dalio: Central Banks Will Struggle
0:21 BoA Michael Hartnett (most important)
0:48 Leading indicator – Number of conceptions
0:50 Bill Bain thinking 3.5-3.75% long bond
1:00 Pricking the Canadian Real Estate Bubble
1:05 Technical Charts
Having problems viewing video? Click to Watch

Bearish Setup on Allstate

Symbol:                 ALL
Last Traded:         $94.01
20 Day MA:          $95.25
First Targets         $90.00
Measured Target:$80.00-$88.00
Outlook:  The retracement was weak. We are looking to see if the stock commits to a second leg lower in the correction.

Bearish Setup on Fedex

Symbol:                 FDX
Last Traded:         $248.74
20 Day MA:          $249.52
First Targets         $240.00
Measured Target:$210.00-$235.00
Outlook:  The retracement was weak. We are looking to see if the stock commits to a second leg lower in the correction.

Rick Rule: Natural Resource Investing

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Erik Townsend welcomes back Rick Rule from Sprott Global to MacroVoices. Erik and Rick discuss using a top down macro perspective on resource investing.  The delve into rare earths, lithium uranium and nuclear energy.  The discuss the future of liquid fluoride thorium reactors, copper, potash and investing in water as a commodity.

Bearish Setup on the Russell 2000

Symbol:                 IWM
Last Traded:         $152.24
20 Day MA:          $152.32
First Targets         $145.00
Measured Target:$133.00-$143.00
Outlook:  We are looking to discover if the markets are setting up for one more correction lower to retest the February lows.

Bearish Setup on Oil

Symbol:                 USO
Last Traded:         $12.29
20 Day MA:          $12.41
First Targets         $11.75
Measured Target:$10.50-$11.50
Outlook:  We are looking to see if crude oil commits to another leg lower in its correction.